What is the ‘Random Walk Theory’
The random walk theory suggests that stock price changes have the same distribution and are independent of each other, so the past movement or trend of a stock price or market cannot be used to predict its future movement. In short, this is the idea that stocks take a random and unpredictable path.
Explaining ‘Random Walk Theory’
A follower of the random walk theory believes it’s impossible to outperform the market without assuming additional risk. Critics of the theory, however, contend that stocks do maintain price trends over time – in other words, that it is possible to outperform the market by carefully selecting entry and exit points for equity investments.
Efficient Markets Are Random
This theory raised a lot of eyebrows in 1973 when author Burton Malkiel wrote “A Random Walk Down Wall Street.” The book popularized the efficient market hypothesis, an earlier theory posed by University of Chicago professor William Sharp. The efficient market hypothesis says that stock prices fully reflect all available information and expectations, so current prices are the best approximation of a company’s intrinsic value. This would preclude anyone from exploiting mispriced stocks on a consistent basis because price movements are largely random and driven by unforeseen events. Sharp and Malkiel concluded that, due to the short-term randomness of returns, investors would be better off investing in a passively managed, well-diversified fund. In his book, Malkiel theorized that “a blindfolded monkey throwing darts at a newspaper’s financial pages could select a portfolio that would do just as well as one carefully selected by experts.”
Enter the Dart-Throwing Monkeys
In 1988, the Wall Street Journal created a contest to test Malkiel’s random walk theory by creating the annual Wall Street Journal Dartboard Contest, pitting professional investors against darts for stock-picking supremacy. Wall Street Journal staff members played the role of the dart-throwing monkeys. After 100 contests, the Wall Street Journal presented the results, which showed the experts won 61 of the contests and the dart throwers won 39. However, the experts were only able to beat the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in 51 contests. Malkiel commented that the experts’ picks were aided by the publicity jump in the price of a stock that tends to occur when stock experts make a recommendation. Passive management proponents contend that, because the experts could only beat the market half the time, investors would be better off investing in a passive fund that charges far lower management fees.
What are some of the criticisms of the theory
One of the biggest criticisms of the Random Walk Theory is that it assumes that all investors are rational and make decisions based on perfect information. However, many experts believe that this is not the case, and that emotions can play a role in investment decisions. As a result, some critics argue that the Random Walk Theory does not provide a true picture of how the stock market works.
Another criticism of the theory is that it relies on historic data to predict future behavior. This means that it does not take into account changes in economic conditions or investor sentiment, which can have a significant impact on stock prices. Despite these criticisms, the Random Walk Theory remains one of the most widely used models for predicting stock market behavior.
How can investors use random walk theory to their advantage
There are actually several ways that Random Walk Theory can be used to Advantage. First, it can help investors to identify overvalued stocks. If a stock’s price is Random, then any sharp increase is likely due to irrational exuberance, rather than Fundamentals. Second, Random walk theory can help investors to focus on the long term. since it is impossible to predict short-term movements, there is no point in trying to time the market. Instead, investors should focus on buying quality stocks and holding them for the long term.
Finally, random walk theory can help investors to diversify their portfolios. By holding a mix of stocks from different sectors and regions, investors can minimize their risk without sacrificing returns. Random walk theory may seem daunting at first, but with a bit of effort, it can actually be used to advantage.
How can investors find out more about this theory and apply it to their own portfolios
The Random Walk Theory is a investment theory that holds that stock prices are random and unpredictable. This theory has been around for decades, and it continues to be popular with investors. While there is no surefire way to predict the stock market, the Random Walk Theory can help investors make informed decisions about when to buy and sell shares. For example, if an investor believes that the market is due for a correction, they may choose to sell their stocks before the market declines. Conversely, if an investor believes that the market is Due for a rebound, they may choose to buy stocks before prices start to rise. While the Random Walk Theory is no guarantee of success, it can be a helpful tool for investors who are looking to make wise investment decisions.
